2026 QB Fantasy Draft Rankings — Tiers, VOR & ADP Values
Our Quarterbacks (QB) draft board for 2026: top 20 by value over replacement (VOR), grouped into tiers. Tier breaks mark real drop-offs in projected value over replacement — players inside a tier are close in value; crossing into the next tier is a bigger gap.
Tier 1
- 1. Josh Allen (QB, BUF) — 384.7 proj. pts, VOR 141.3, ADP #29
- 2. Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX) — 318.1 proj. pts, VOR 74.6, ADP #87
- 3. Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) — 303.8 proj. pts, VOR 60.4, ADP #96
Tier 2
- 4. Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) — 296.6 proj. pts, VOR 53.2, ADP #81
- 5. Caleb Williams (QB, CHI) — 293.9 proj. pts, VOR 50.5, ADP #111
- 6. Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC) — 285.5 proj. pts, VOR 42.0, ADP #78
Tier 3
- 7. Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) — 285.3 proj. pts, VOR 41.8, ADP #60
- 8. Bo Nix (QB, DEN) — 283.1 proj. pts, VOR 39.6, ADP #114
- 9. Drake Maye (QB, NE) — 282.2 proj. pts, VOR 38.8, ADP #65
Tier 4
- 10. Baker Mayfield (QB, TB) — 270.0 proj. pts, VOR 26.5, ADP #124
- 11. Aaron Rodgers (QB, PIT) — 261.1 proj. pts, VOR 17.7
- 12. Jaxson Dart (QB, NYG) — 245.7 proj. pts, VOR 2.3, ADP #118
Tier 5
- 13. Matthew Stafford (QB, LA) — 243.8 proj. pts, VOR 0.3, ADP #107
- 14. Jared Goff (QB, DET) — 243.4 proj. pts, VOR 0.0, ADP #94
- 15. C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU) — 232.2 proj. pts, VOR -11.3, ADP #143
Tier 6
- 16. Bryce Young (QB, CAR) — 229.8 proj. pts, VOR -13.6
- 17. Cam Ward (QB, TEN) — 223.6 proj. pts, VOR -19.9, ADP #165
- 18. Jordan Love (QB, GB) — 220.5 proj. pts, VOR -23.0, ADP #127
Tier 7
- 19. Jacoby Brissett (QB, ARI) — 218.5 proj. pts, VOR -24.9
- 20. Daniel Jones (QB, IND) — 210.2 proj. pts, VOR -33.2, ADP #161
Draft values
Players the market (ADP) drafts significantly LATER than our board ranks them — that gap is where draft value lives.
Find the bets where soft books misprice the odds.
See today's value bets — free account- Caleb Williams (QB, CHI) — our rank #42, market ADP #111 (+69 picks)
- Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX) — our rank #21, market ADP #87 (+66 picks)
- Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) — our rank #33, market ADP #96 (+63 picks)
- Baker Mayfield (QB, TB) — our rank #62, market ADP #124 (+62 picks)
- Bo Nix (QB, DEN) — our rank #54, market ADP #114 (+60 picks)
Reaches
Players the market drafts significantly EARLIER than our board ranks them.
- Malik Willis (QB, MIA) — our rank #532, market ADP #160 (-372 picks)
- Kyler Murray (QB, MIN) — our rank #506, market ADP #146 (-360 picks)
- Joe Burrow (QB, CIN) — our rank #356, market ADP #49 (-307 picks)
- Jayden Daniels (QB, WAS) — our rank #365, market ADP #90 (-275 picks)
- Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) — our rank #173, market ADP #57 (-116 picks)
The full Quarterbacks (QB) board with every tier.
More draft prep: our mock draft simulator, the sleepers & reaches board and NFL player props for the season.
Full QB board — freeReading the VOR Curve: Where the Real Gaps Are
The steepest cliff on this board isn't between tiers 3 and 4 — it's the 66.7-point VOR gap between Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence at the top. That's essentially a tier of one. Positional scarcity arguments for taking a QB early live or die on gaps like this, and this year's data makes the case unusually clean.
Below Allen, though, the curve flattens hard. Herbert through Maye (ranks 4-9) are separated by only about 14 VOR points across six players, which is a shallow, tightly bunched group rather than a clear pecking order. Practically, that means missing on any one of these names isn't catastrophic — there's a deep, interchangeable pool sitting right behind them, which supports a streaming-friendly approach if you pass on the position early.
The value/reach split also hints at a stylistic pattern worth noting rather than a coincidence. Nearly every 'value' name here — Lawrence, Hurts, Williams, Nix — carries real rushing production layered on top of the passing floor, while several 'reach' names (Burrow, Daniels, Lamar Jackson) are pocket-first or coming off an injury-shortened or otherwise irregular season. That's not proof the market is wrong, but it does suggest name recognition and prior peak-year memory can drift ahead of what a role- and usage-based model currently sees.
Worth flagging plainly: this is one projection model's snapshot, not gospel, and the sample of 'ADP vs. rank' gaps here is small. Rushing-dependent QB profiles also carry their own injury variance that a single-season point projection can't fully capture.
Included with every account — even the free one.