Our NFL season predictor simulates the full 2026 season 10,000× to estimate every team's playoff odds, division title chances, and Super Bowl probability. Predictions are free — value bets are part of our All-Access plan.
| # | Team | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 90.4% | 11.1% |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 83.6% | 10.5% |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 73.5% | 10.0% |
| 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 92.2% | 10.0% |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 89.0% | 9.5% |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | 62.7% | 7.1% |
| 7 | Denver Broncos | 82.4% | 5.9% |
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | 85.9% | 5.7% |
| 9 | Detroit Lions | 66.2% | 4.9% |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 79.5% | 4.7% |
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations · last updated 17 Oct 2026
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 11.2 | 57.0% | 89.0% | 9.5% |
| New England Patriots | 10.7 | 42.4% | 83.6% | 10.5% |
| New York Jets | 5.9 | 0.5% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Miami Dolphins | 4.9 | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8.8 | 47.0% | 53.4% | 3.1% |
| New York Giants | 8.1 | 30.4% | 37.0% | 0.9% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 7.4 | 17.8% | 22.7% | 0.7% |
| Washington Commanders | 6.1 | 4.7% | 6.4% |
Live odds update as results come in.
NFL is a spread + totals market. Once the season runs, every finished game's pre-game spread and total prediction is scored here with a Brier score — no cherry-picking, wins and misses alike.
| Match | Score | Total | Line | Over% | Result | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks vs New England PatriotsWeek 1 | 13–10 | 23 | O/U 44.5 | 51% | Under | 0.256 |
| Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ersWeek 1 | 7–27 | 34 | O/U 48 | 50% | Under | 0.247 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland BrownsWeek 1 | 34–10 | 44 | O/U 40.5 | 55% | Over | 0.202 |
| Tennessee Titans vs New York JetsWeek 1 | 10–23 | 33 | O/U 38.5 | 62% | Under | 0.390 |
| Houston Texans vs Buffalo BillsWeek 1 | 31–36 | 67 | O/U 45 | 47% | Over | 0.277 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta FalconsWeek 1 | 20–13 | 33 | O/U 41 | 63% | Under | 0.397 |
| Carolina Panthers vs Chicago BearsWeek 1 | 37–59 | 96 | O/U 47.5 | 47% | Over | 0.285 |
| Detroit Lions vs New Orleans SaintsWeek 1 | 31–30 | 61 | O/U 49.5 | 55% | Over | 0.207 |
| Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersWeek 1 | 33–27 | 60 | O/U 50 | 51% | Over | 0.244 |
| Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore RavensWeek 1 | 23–41 | 64 | O/U 48.5 | 37% | Over | 0.394 |
| Los Angeles Chargers vs Arizona CardinalsWeek 1 | 14–26 | 40 | O/U 47 | 44% | Under | 0.194 |
| Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami DolphinsWeek 1 | 27–13 | 40 | O/U 40.5 | 51% | Under | 0.259 |
| Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington CommandersWeek 1 | 24–22 | 46 | O/U 44.5 | 49% | Over | 0.258 |
| Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay PackersWeek 1 | 39–22 | 61 | O/U 45 | 50% | Over | 0.248 |
| New York Giants vs Dallas CowboysWeek 1 | 28–20 | 48 | O/U 47.5 | 44% | Over | 0.312 |
| Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver BroncosWeek 1 | 31–10 | 41 | O/U 44 | 53% | Under | 0.281 |
| Buffalo Bills vs Detroit LionsWeek 2 | 41–31 | 72 | O/U 54.5 | 45% | Over | 0.305 |
| New York Jets vs Green Bay PackersWeek 2 | 17–20 | 37 | O/U 44 | 44% | Under | 0.194 |
| Baltimore Ravens vs New Orleans SaintsWeek 2 | 17–24 | 41 | O/U 45.5 | 49% | Under | 0.237 |
| Chicago Bears vs Minnesota VikingsWeek 2 | 3–9 | 12 | O/U 47 | 60% | Under | 0.357 |
| Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina PanthersWeek 2 | 3–34 | 37 | O/U 43.5 | 51% | Under | 0.264 |
| Houston Texans vs Cincinnati BengalsWeek 2 | 6–20 | 26 | O/U 45.5 | 50% | Under | 0.255 |
| New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh SteelersWeek 2 | 20–3 | 23 | O/U 41.5 | 56% | Under | 0.310 |
| Tennessee Titans vs Philadelphia EaglesWeek 2 | 20–24 | 44 | O/U 40 | 58% | Over | 0.175 |
| Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas RaidersWeek 2 | 14–26 | 40 | O/U 43.5 | 53% | Under | 0.279 |
Our transparent NFL bet record: settled bets are always public — pending picks are members-only.
| Match | Bet | Odds | Stake | EV | CLV | P&L | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts | away_-4.5 | 1.98 | 1.78u | +7.0% | — | +1.74 | won |
| Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts ML | 2.00 | 1.18u | +4.7% | +9.9% | +1.18 | won |
| Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars | Cincinnati Bengals ML | 1.74 | 0.81u | +2.4% | -2.8% | -0.81 | lost |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers | away_-3.5 | 2.01 | 1.25u | +5.0% | — | -1.25 | lost |
| Chicago Bears vs New York Jets | home_-3.5 | 1.96 | 2.22u | +8.5% | — | +2.13 | won |
| Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys | home_-3.0 | 1.99 | 1.57u | +6.2% | — | -1.57 | lost |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers ML | 1.72 | 0.88u | +2.5% | +30.3% | +0.63 | won |
| Chicago Bears vs New York Jets | Chicago Bears ML | 1.64 | 1.24u | +3.2% | +5.8% | +0.79 | won |
| New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals | New York Giants ML | 2.28 | 0.70u | +3.6% | -44.3% | +0.90 | won |
| Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins | away_+10.0 | 1.91 | 2.06u | +7.5% | — | +1.87 | won |
| San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos | home_-3.0 | 2.00 | 1.36u | +5.5% | — | +1.36 | won |
| Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions | Carolina Panthers ML | 2.90 | 0.34u | +2.5% | +0.7% | +0.65 | won |
| Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans | home_+7.5 | 1.85 | 2.28u | +7.7% | — | -2.28 | lost |
| New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns | New York Jets ML | 1.77 | 0.68u | +2.1% | +37.2% | +0.52 | won |
| Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens | Atlanta Falcons ML | 1.68 | 1.26u | +3.4% | +9.8% | -1.26 | lost |
| Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills | Los Angeles Rams ML | 1.62 | 0.82u | +2.0% | +4.5% | -0.82 | lost |
| Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks | home_+2.5 | 2.00 | 1.81u | +7.2% | — | +1.81 | won |
| Philadelphia Eagles vs Carolina Panthers | Pick | 0.00 | 0.00u | +6.1% | — | — | pending |
| San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders | Pick | 0.00 | 0.00u | +6.5% | — | — | pending |
We simulate the complete 2026 NFL schedule 10,000 times with Monte Carlo methods. Each team's power rating drives per-game win probabilities, and the simulation aggregates them into projected wins, playoff odds, division titles, seeds and Super Bowl probability.
Preseason projections stand until Week 1 (September 2026); once the season runs, the simulation reruns as results come in, so playoff and Super Bowl odds always reflect the current standings.
Power ratings from prior-season results; not adjusted for off-season roster moves. Approximate playoff tiebreakers. For entertainment purposes — 18+.
| 0.0% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.3 | 50.0% | 73.8% | 3.3% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.0 | 21.4% | 47.3% | 1.5% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8.7 | 15.8% | 38.6% | 0.6% |
| Cleveland Browns | 8.4 | 12.7% | 33.4% | 0.4% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 11.3 | 78.8% | 90.4% | 11.1% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.7 | 14.2% | 41.2% | 2.0% |
| Houston Texans | 7.9 | 6.9% | 23.2% | 1.3% |
| Tennessee Titans | 4.0 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 10.6 | 50.1% | 82.4% | 5.9% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.6 | 46.8% | 79.5% | 4.7% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7.1 | 2.5% | 10.4% | 0.1% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 5.9 | 0.7% | 3.2% | 0.1% |
| 0.1% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 11.1 | 53.2% | 85.9% | 5.7% |
| Detroit Lions | 9.9 | 24.4% | 66.2% | 4.9% |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.1 | 12.7% | 47.4% | 2.2% |
| Chicago Bears | 8.8 | 9.7% | 39.4% | 1.8% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 7.9 | 35.6% | 39.2% | 0.9% |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.8 | 34.2% | 37.5% | 0.7% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.7 | 15.5% | 17.4% | 0.5% |
| New Orleans Saints | 6.7 | 14.7% | 16.6% | 0.3% |
| Team | Proj W | Div title | Playoffs | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 11.7 | 62.1% | 92.2% | 10.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.2 | 22.1% | 73.5% | 10.0% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 9.7 | 15.6% | 62.7% | 7.1% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5.8 | 0.2% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
From prior-season results via an Elo-style rating system — the same data-first approach behind our betting model. They are deliberately not adjusted for off-season roster speculation.
Yes. Once the season starts, every finished game's pre-game spread and totals prediction is scored on this page with a Brier score — wins and misses alike, no cherry-picking.