A 538-style Elo power ranking for all 32 NFL teams, built from game results and margin of victory with a margin-of-victory boost and a yearly reset toward the mean. 1500 is league-average. A power ranking for research — our NFL betting model uses the closing line + EPA/DVOA, not Elo.
| # | Team | Elo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 1761 | |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 1660 | |
| 3 | Denver Broncos | 1659 | |
| 4 | Houston Texans | 1654 | |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 1653 | |
| 6 | New England Patriots | 1638 | |
| 7 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1599 | |
| 8 | San Francisco 49ers | 1583 | |
| 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1581 | |
| 10 | Detroit Lions | 1579 | |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | 1576 | |
| 12 | Baltimore Ravens | 1561 | |
| 13 | Chicago Bears | 1541 | |
| 14 | Green Bay Packers | 1536 | |
| 15 | Los Angeles Chargers | 1536 | |
| 16 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1512 | |
| 17 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1483 | |
| 18 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1467 | |
| 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1465 | |
| 20 | Atlanta Falcons | 1457 | |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 1446 | |
| 22 | Washington Commanders | 1440 | |
| 23 | Dallas Cowboys | 1433 | |
| 24 | Miami Dolphins | 1432 | |
| 25 | New Orleans Saints | 1406 | |
| 26 | Carolina Panthers | 1394 | |
| 27 | New York Giants | 1385 | |
| 28 | Cleveland Browns | 1381 | |
| 29 | Arizona Cardinals | 1336 | |
| 30 | New York Jets | 1290 | |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans | 1285 | |
| 32 | Las Vegas Raiders | 1272 |
Elo is a self-updating measure of team strength, popularised for the NFL by FiveThirtyEight. Every team sits near the league average of 1500; after each game the winner takes rating points from the loser, with the size of the swing set by the margin of victory and by how unexpected the result was. The table above is therefore a live power ranking driven purely by what has happened on the field.
The NFL is the hardest of the major leagues to rate this way, because a 17-game season is a tiny sample next to the NHL's or NBA's 82. One upset can move a team several spots, and Elo tends to trail a team's true current strength by roughly a season. That's why we publish it as a power ranking and a research tool, not as a betting signal.
For our actual NFL betting model we deliberately lean on the market closing line plus efficiency metrics like EPA per play and DVOA, which react faster than a 17-game Elo. Read this page to see who the model of record ranks where, and watch how ratings shift each week and reset toward 1500 at the start of every new season.
With only 17 games a season, NFL Elo trails real strength by roughly a season — treat it as a power ranking, not a live betting signal.
For research / entertainment — 18+.