A 538-style Elo power ranking for all 32 NFL teams, built from game results and margin of victory with a margin-of-victory boost and a yearly reset toward the mean. 1500 is league-average. A power ranking for research — our NFL betting model uses the closing line + EPA/DVOA, not Elo.
| # | Team | Elo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 1653 | |
| 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 1650 | |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | 1640 | |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 1626 | |
| 5 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 1618 | |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | 1609 | |
| 7 | New England Patriots | 1604 | |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | 1572 | |
| 9 | Los Angeles Rams | 1571 | |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 1567 | |
| 11 | Detroit Lions | 1549 | |
| 12 | Chicago Bears | 1534 | |
| 13 | Houston Texans | 1523 | |
| 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 1521 | |
| 15 | Cincinnati Bengals | 1520 | |
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | 1517 | |
| 17 | Philadelphia Eagles | 1515 | |
| 18 | Atlanta Falcons | 1471 | |
| 19 | Carolina Panthers | 1461 | |
| 20 | New York Giants | 1458 | |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 1457 | |
| 22 | Dallas Cowboys | 1441 | |
| 23 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1441 | |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns | 1435 | |
| 25 | Las Vegas Raiders | 1423 | |
| 26 | Los Angeles Chargers | 1417 | |
| 27 | Washington Commanders | 1412 | |
| 28 | New Orleans Saints | 1391 | |
| 29 | New York Jets | 1382 | |
| 30 | Arizona Cardinals | 1368 | |
| 31 | Miami Dolphins | 1368 | |
| 32 | Tennessee Titans | 1286 |
Elo is a self-updating measure of team strength, popularised for the NFL by FiveThirtyEight. Every team sits near the league average of 1500; after each game the winner takes rating points from the loser, with the size of the swing set by the margin of victory and by how unexpected the result was. The table above is therefore a live power ranking driven purely by what has happened on the field.
The NFL is the hardest of the major leagues to rate this way, because a 17-game season is a tiny sample next to the NHL's or NBA's 82. One upset can move a team several spots, and Elo tends to trail a team's true current strength by roughly a season. That's why we publish it as a power ranking and a research tool, not as a betting signal.
For our actual NFL betting model we deliberately lean on the market closing line plus efficiency metrics like EPA per play and DVOA, which react faster than a 17-game Elo. Read this page to see who the model of record ranks where, and watch how ratings shift each week and reset toward 1500 at the start of every new season.
With only 17 games a season, NFL Elo trails real strength by roughly a season — treat it as a power ranking, not a live betting signal.
For research / entertainment — 18+.