A sleeper isn't a hunch — it's a price gap. These are the players the market drafts furthest below our projection model's board (PPR): real average draft position vs. model rank, refreshed daily. And on the flip side: the reaches the market keeps overpaying for.
| Player | Pos | Team | Model rank | ADP rank | Gap | Proj pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | QB | BUF | 6 | 12 | +6 | 387 |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 11 | 14 | +3 | 264 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | LA | 14 | 15 | +1 | 256 |
| Player | Pos | Team | Model rank | ADP rank | Gap | Proj pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | QB | NO | 202 | 27 | -175 | 173 |
| Jalen Coker | WR | CAR | 188 | 26 | -162 | 111 |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | 171 | 18 | -153 | 122 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | LAC | 143 | 11 | -132 | 128 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | 139 | 28 | -111 | 116 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | NE | 133 | 23 | -110 | 137 |
| Parker Washington | WR | JAX | 110 | 17 | -93 | 164 |
| David Montgomery | RB | HOU | 88 | 19 | -69 | 166 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | 80 | 22 | -58 | 177 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | DEN | 77 | 20 | -57 | 189 |
Data baseline, not gospel: projections come from prior-season form, usage and opponent strength; ADP moves daily and does not know about last night's injury news. Always check reports before drafting. For entertainment / draft research — 18+.
A player whose public average draft position (ADP) is significantly later than his rank on our value-over-replacement projection board. We don't guess narratives — we measure the gap between market price and model price, exactly like our betting models do with bookmaker odds.
Public average draft position aggregated from real drafts (Fantasy Football Calculator), matched to our player projections and refreshed with the rankings — so the sleeper list updates as draft-season sentiment moves.
Avoiding a bad pick is worth as much as finding a good one. If the market consistently drafts a player 10+ picks ahead of his projected value, someone in your league will pay that premium — it doesn't have to be you.