Portugal's Primeira Liga is dominated by the big three — Benfica, Porto and Sporting have won every title for decades — yet the gaps between them swing hard year to year, and the race for the European places behind them is consistently tight. Our model ignores reputations: results-driven Elo ratings capture each club's current level, a Poisson goal engine models scorelines, and 10,000 simulations of the remaining fixtures produce title, top-four, Europe and relegation probabilities for all 18 clubs.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.63 | FC Porto | 0 | 0 | 70 | 64.3% | 96.9% | 99.5% | 0% |
| 2.97 | Sporting Clube de Braga | 0 | 0 | 63 | 19.6% | 83.1% | 94.6% | <0.1% |
| 4.28 | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 0 | 0 | 58 | 7.1% | 61.5% | 84.5% | 0.1% |
| 5.48 | Vitória SC | 0 | 0 | 55 | 2.7% | 41.4% | 69.5% | 0.3% |
| 5.53 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 0 | 0 | 55 | 2.6% | 40.5% | 69.2% | 0.4% |
| 5.54 | FC Famalicão | 0 | 0 | 55 | 2.8% | 41.0% | 69.0% | 0.5% |
| 8.16 | CD Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 48 | 0.4% | 13.8% | 34.8% | 3.1% |
| 8.96 | FC Arouca | 0 | 0 | 47 | 0.2% | 9.6% | 26.1% | 4.9% |
| 10.39 | GD Estoril Praia | 0 | 0 | 44 | 0.1% | 4.3% | 15.4% | 10.6% |
| 11.94 | CF Estrela da Amadora | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0.1% | 1.6% | 7.3% | 20.1% |
| 12.07 | Rio Ave FC | 0 | 0 | 40 | <0.1% | 1.7% | 7.0% | 20.8% |
| 12.28 | CS Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 40 | <0.1% | 1.2% | 5.7% | 22.2% |
| 12.33 | Académico de Viseu FC | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0% | 1.4% | 5.9% | 22.3% |
| 13.69 | Gil Vicente FC | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0% | 0.4% | 2.6% | 36.8% |
| 13.73 | CD Nacional | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 36.9% |
| 13.83 | FC Alverca | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 38.4% |
| 14 | Moreirense FC | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0% | 0.5% | 2.4% | 40.0% |
| 14.19 | Casa Pia AC | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 42.5% |
The frozen projection from before matchday 1 — kept unchanged all season so you can judge how the model's pre-season read held up.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.32 | FC Porto | 0 | 0 | 73 | 77.9% | 99.3% | 99.9% | 0% |
| 3.18 | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | 0 | 0 | 62 | 11.2% | 81.8% | 94.3% | 0.1% |
| 4.07 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 0 | 0 | 58 | 5.3% | 67.8% | 87.5% | 0.1% |
| 4.19 | FC Famalicão | 0 | 0 | 58 | 4.2% | 66.0% | 86.1% | 0.1% |
| 6.65 | CD Santa Clara | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0.6% | 28.0% | 56.9% | 1.5% |
| 7.3 | FC Arouca | 0 | 0 | 50 | 0.5% | 21.6% | 48.7% | 2.6% |
| 9.41 | Sporting Clube de Braga | 0 | 0 | 45 | 0.1% | 8.9% | 26.0% | 8.2% |
| 10.76 | Rio Ave FC | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0.1% | 5.0% | 16.3% | 15.0% |
| 10.88 | CS Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 43 | <0.1% | 4.5% | 15.3% | 15.3% |
| 10.89 | Académico de Viseu FC | 0 | 0 | 43 | <0.1% | 4.1% | 14.8% | 15.2% |
| 12.38 | CD Nacional | 0 | 0 | 40 | 0% | 2.1% | 8.6% | 26.5% |
| 12.39 | Vitória SC | 0 | 0 | 40 | <0.1% | 2.0% | 8.0% | 26.5% |
| 12.43 | Gil Vicente FC | 0 | 0 | 40 | <0.1% | 1.9% | 7.8% | 26.4% |
| 12.57 | FC Alverca | 0 | 0 | 40 | <0.1% | 1.8% | 7.2% | 27.8% |
| 12.79 | Moreirense FC | 0 | 0 | 39 | 0% | 1.7% | 6.7% | 30.0% |
| 13.01 | CF Estrela da Amadora | 0 | 0 | 39 | 0% | 1.4% | 6.0% | 32.5% |
| 13.03 | Casa Pia AC | 0 | 0 | 39 | 0% | 1.2% | 6.0% | 32.2% |
| 13.76 | GD Estoril Praia | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0% | 0.7% | 3.8% | 40.0% |
Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.
We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.
The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.