Our statistical model simulates the entire tournament 10,000 times to estimate every team's chance of winning the group, reaching each round and lifting the trophy. Predictions are free — the value bets for each match are part of our Football and All-Access plans.
| # | Team | Grp | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | I | 9.5% |
| 2 | Argentina | J | 8.9% |
| 3 | Spain | H | 8.3% |
| 4 | Germany | E | 7.4% |
| 5 | Brazil | C | 6.2% |
| 6 | Netherlands | F | 5.4% |
| 7 | Senegal | I | 4.7% |
| 8 | England | L | 4.7% |
| 9 | Belgium | G | 3.8% |
| 10 | Colombia | K | 3.1% |
| 11 | Ivory Coast | E | 2.5% |
| 12 | Morocco | C | 2.2% |
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations · last run 10 Jun 2026
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