Elo power ratings for every FBS team, computed 538-style over 9,000+ games since 2014. Game-by-game predictions and our full model reads land here when the season opens on Aug 29.
Model spread & total leans for every FBS game, week by week — Pinnacle-anchored and graded after final whistle.
→ View this week's readsEvery 2026 game gets a prediction page with Elo leans, form and head-to-head — the full model (built the same way as our NFL model) publishes its reads when lines open in late August.
→ Browse 2026 games & predictions| Team | Ø Wins | CFP |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 5.7 | 88% |
| James Madison | 5.1 | 76% |
| Texas Tech | 5.2 | 69% |
| Georgia | 4.8 | 64% |
| Utah | 4.9 | 63% |
| BYU | 5.0 | 62% |
| Indiana | 4.7 | 60% |
| Texas | 4.8 | 55% |
| Oregon | 4.7 | 49% |
| SMU | 4.7 | 38% |
| Notre Dame | 4.2 | 36% |
| Ohio State | 4.0 | 33% |
2,000 Monte-Carlo season simulations on Elo power ratings (12-team format: P4 champs + best G5 champ + 7 at-large). A projection, not a bet recommendation — rosters shift until kickoff.
| Rank | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Indiana | 1820 |
| #2 | Georgia | 1801 |
| #3 | Miami | 1791 |
| #4 | Ohio State | 1788 |
| #5 | James Madison | 1732 |
| #6 | Alabama | 1731 |
| #7 | Utah | 1722 |
| #8 | Notre Dame | 1720 |
| #9 | BYU | 1717 |
| #10 | Ole Miss | 1715 |
| #11 | Texas | 1715 |
| #12 | Texas Tech | 1702 |
| #13 | Oregon | 1698 |
| #14 | Iowa | 1676 |
| #15 | USC | 1676 |
| #16 | Boise State | 1668 |
| #17 | Arizona | 1652 |
| #18 | Missouri | 1647 |
| #19 | Tennessee | 1644 |
| #20 | Houston | 1634 |
| #21 | SMU | 1633 |
| #22 | Duke | 1626 |
| #23 | LSU | 1624 |
| #24 | Wake Forest | 1623 |
| #25 | Oklahoma | 1620 |
Why trust the numbers? Our models run at Pinnacle-level accuracy with every result published — see the track record.