Elo power ratings for every FBS team, computed 538-style over 9,000+ games since 2014. Game-by-game predictions and our full model reads land here when the season opens on Aug 29.
Model spread & total leans for every FBS game, week by week — Pinnacle-anchored and graded after final whistle.
→ View this week's readsEvery 2026 game gets a prediction page with Elo leans, form and head-to-head — the full model (built the same way as our NFL model) publishes its reads when lines open in late August.
→ Browse 2026 games & predictions| Team | Ø Wins | CFP |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 9.4 | 83% |
| Indiana | 8.7 | 71% |
| Texas Tech | 8.4 | 64% |
| Miami | 8.3 | 64% |
| Ohio State | 8.4 | 62% |
| Oregon | 8.2 | 59% |
| Georgia | 8.0 | 52% |
| Penn State | 8.2 | 46% |
| James Madison | 8.0 | 44% |
| Ole Miss | 7.7 | 40% |
| Texas | 7.7 | 40% |
| Utah | 7.6 | 35% |
2,000 Monte-Carlo season simulations on Elo power ratings (12-team format: P4 champs + best G5 champ + 7 at-large). A projection, not a bet recommendation — rosters shift until kickoff.
| Rank | Team | Elo |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | Indiana | 1775 |
| #2 | Oregon | 1732 |
| #3 | Ohio State | 1731 |
| #4 | Notre Dame | 1727 |
| #5 | Georgia | 1721 |
| #6 | Miami | 1714 |
| #7 | Ole Miss | 1702 |
| #8 | Texas | 1674 |
| #9 | Texas Tech | 1667 |
| #10 | Utah | 1657 |
| #11 | James Madison | 1655 |
| #12 | BYU | 1649 |
| #13 | Alabama | 1647 |
| #14 | Iowa | 1643 |
| #15 | SMU | 1635 |
| #16 | Texas A&M | 1633 |
| #17 | Penn State | 1631 |
| #18 | USC | 1624 |
| #19 | Vanderbilt | 1622 |
| #20 | Oklahoma | 1610 |
| #21 | Navy | 1608 |
| #22 | Washington | 1606 |
| #23 | Michigan | 1603 |
| #24 | Old Dominion | 1602 |
| #25 | Tulane | 1596 |
Why trust the numbers? Our models run at Pinnacle-level accuracy with every result published — see the track record.