Germany's Bundesliga pairs the most reliable favourite in Europe with one of its most chaotic mid-tables: Bayern's baseline is historically strong, but the race for the Champions League spots and the relegation playoff place churns every season. Our model doesn't assume any of that — it rates each squad from results with Elo, models goals with a Dixon-Coles-adjusted Poisson engine, and simulates the remaining 34-round schedule 10,000 times to estimate every club's title, top-four, Europe and relegation chances.
| Pos | Team | Pld | Pts | Proj Pts | Title % | Top 4 % | Europe % | Releg. % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.16 | FC Bayern München | 0 | 0 | 78 | 87.1% | 99.8% | >99.9% | 0% |
| 2.8 | Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 65 | 8.5% | 89.0% | 97.9% | 0% |
| 4.3 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 59 | 1.7% | 62.5% | 87.1% | 0.1% |
| 4.41 | VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 59 | 1.8% | 59.7% | 85.6% | 0.1% |
| 5.08 | RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 56 | 0.7% | 46.9% | 78.5% | 0.1% |
| 7.11 | TSG Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 51 | 0.1% | 18.8% | 48.6% | 1.2% |
| 8.74 | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 0.1% | 8.0% | 28.8% | 4.2% |
| 9.75 | SC Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 45 | <0.1% | 5.0% | 18.9% | 7.2% |
| 10.54 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 43 | <0.1% | 3.1% | 13.8% | 10.7% |
| 10.63 | FC Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0% | 2.9% | 12.9% | 11.2% |
| 11.67 | FC Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 0% | 1.5% | 8.0% | 18.1% |
| 12.94 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0% | 0.5% | 3.7% | 28.0% |
| 12.96 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 29.1% |
| 13.21 | SV 07 Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 38 | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 31.1% |
| 13.41 | Hamburger SV | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 34.0% |
| 13.65 | SC Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 35.8% |
| 14.03 | SV Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 40.6% |
| 14.61 | 1. FC Köln | 0 | 0 | 35 | 0% | 0.1% | 1.4% | 48.4% |
Every club carries an Elo rating that moves only with results — beat a stronger side and it rises, drop points to a weaker one and it falls. A Poisson goal model (the same engine behind our football totals and handicap predictions, with a shots-on-target-based xG proxy) turns the two teams' ratings into a full scoreline distribution for each remaining fixture.
We then play out the rest of the season 10,000 times, drawing a result for every fixture from those distributions and re-building the table each time. The percentages above are simple counts across those simulated seasons: how often a club finished first, in the top four, in a European spot, or in the relegation places.
The model only knows results and shot data — it cannot see transfers, injuries, managerial changes or squad depth until they show up in performances, so early-season projections lean heavily on last season's level. Probabilities are estimates, not promises: a 5% relegation chance still happens one season in twenty. We publish the projections in full; the value bets our model finds on individual matches are part of the paid plans and are never shown here.