The biggest moves in de-vigged Pinnacle implied probabilities across upcoming games in the next 48 hours — football, tennis, NHL, NBA, MLB and more. We compare the earliest price taken more than a day before kickoff with the latest pre-match price, strip the bookmaker margin from both, and rank the moves. A sharp move means the best-informed market re-priced an outcome — it does not mean that outcome will happen, and it is not a betting tip.
| Kickoff | Sport | Match | Market moved toward | Open → Now | Move | Public lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 | NFL 🏈 | Philadelphia Eagles – Carolina PanthersNFL | Carolina Panthers | 46.0% → 61.7% | +15.7pp | −0.6pp17 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 04:00 | mma | Chad Anheliger – Steven KoslowUFC | Steven Koslow | 45.6% → 57.5% | +11.8pp | — |
| Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 | CFB 🏈 | Buffalo – MassachusettsNCAAF | Buffalo | 59.3% → 70.8% | +11.5pp | +0.5pp10 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 | NFL 🏈 | Atlanta Falcons – Chicago BearsNFL | Atlanta Falcons | 38.6% → 49.6% | +11.0pp | −0.8pp15 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 18:00 | CFB 🏈 | LSU – Mississippi StateNCAAF | LSU | 77.7% → 85.0% | +7.2pp | +0.8pp11 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 | Football ⚽ | Leeds United FC – Manchester United FCPremier League | Leeds United FC | 33.7% → 40.9% | +7.1pp | −0.4pp21 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 20:45 | Football ⚽ | AS Roma – Genoa CFCSerie A | Draw | 16.9% → 24.0% | +7.1pp | −0.6pp20 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 18:00 | CFB 🏈 | Kansas State – KansasNCAAF | Kansas | 32.9% → 40.0% | +7.1pp | −0.6pp12 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 01:30 | CFB 🏈 | UCLA – WisconsinNCAAF | Wisconsin | 39.2% → 45.5% | +6.3pp | −1.1pp9 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 20:30 | Football ⚽ | Hannover 96 – FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga | FC St. Pauli | 29.8% → 36.0% | +6.2pp | −1.9pp17 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 16:00 | Football ⚽ | Brentford FC – Liverpool FCPremier League | Brentford FC | 34.1% → 39.9% | +5.8pp | −0.4pp21 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 00:50 | mma | Joel Faglier – Javad MahjoubUFC | Joel Faglier | 48.8% → 54.2% | +5.4pp | −0.5pp11 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 | Football ⚽ | NEC – Fortuna SittardEredivisie | Fortuna Sittard | 15.6% → 20.8% | +5.2pp | +0.4pp18 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 21:30 | CFB 🏈 | Eastern Michigan – ToledoNCAAF | Toledo | 64.8% → 69.8% | +5.0pp | −0.4pp9 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 16:45 | Football ⚽ | FC Groningen – AFC AjaxEredivisie | FC Groningen | 22.6% → 27.6% | +5.0pp | −0.7pp18 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 16:00 | Football ⚽ | Derby County FC – Stoke City FCChampionship | Stoke City FC | 35.6% → 40.3% | +4.7pp | −0.7pp18 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 | NFL 🏈 | Cleveland Browns – Baltimore RavensNFL | Cleveland Browns | 33.6% → 38.2% | +4.6pp | +1.1pp17 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 18:00 | CFB 🏈 | Indiana – Ohio StateNCAAF | Indiana | 36.5% → 41.1% | +4.6pp | +0.3pp12 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 16:00 | Football ⚽ | Wrexham AFC – Preston North End FCChampionship | Wrexham AFC | 56.6% → 61.0% | +4.5pp | −1.0pp18 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 | Football ⚽ | CA Osasuna – Real Racing Club de SantanderLa Liga | Real Racing Club de Santander | 21.7% → 26.1% | +4.4pp | +0.2pp17 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 23:45 | mma | Melissa Croden – Chelsea ChandlerUFC | Melissa Croden | 70.4% → 74.7% | +4.2pp | −1.1pp10 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 23:00 | mma | Louis Jourdain – Timothy CuambaUFC | Timothy Cuamba | 35.4% → 39.5% | +4.1pp | −1.1pp15 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 | Football ⚽ | Angers SCO – Olympique de MarseilleLigue 1 | Olympique de Marseille | 43.3% → 47.3% | +4.1pp | −0.8pp19 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 16:00 | Football ⚽ | Swansea City AFC – West Ham United FCChampionship | West Ham United FC | 42.9% → 46.9% | +4.0pp | −2.0pp18 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 15:00 | Football ⚽ | Brighton & Hove Albion FC – Crystal Palace FCPremier League | Brighton & Hove Albion FC | 59.7% → 63.4% | +3.8pp | −0.7pp21 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 04:00 | mma | Cody Chovancek – Su Young YouUFC | Su Young You | 41.2% → 45.0% | +3.8pp | — |
| Sun 18 Oct, 13:30 | Football ⚽ | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II – SC Verl3. Liga | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II | 48.0% → 51.7% | +3.7pp | −0.7pp8 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 18:00 | CFB 🏈 | Army – Florida AtlanticNCAAF | Florida Atlantic | 42.9% → 46.5% | +3.7pp | −0.2pp12 books |
| Sat 17 Oct, 23:00 | CFB 🏈 | Louisiana – TroyNCAAF | Troy | 38.3% → 42.1% | +3.7pp | +0.1pp9 books |
| Sun 18 Oct, 12:15 | Football ⚽ | PEC Zwolle – Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie | Go Ahead Eagles | 45.0% → 48.5% | +3.5pp | −0.3pp18 books |
Data refreshes roughly every 15 minutes. Times in CET/CEST.
We track Pinnacle, widely regarded as the sharpest bookmaker, and remove the vig (bookmaker margin) from its prices so they read as true implied probabilities. When an outcome's de-vigged implied probability shifts by 2 or more percentage points between the earliest price (more than 24 hours out) and the latest pre-kickoff price, it appears here.
Pinnacle welcomes winning players and takes very large limits, so its prices absorb the best-informed money in the market. That makes its line the closest public proxy to a true market consensus — softer bookmakers usually follow its moves rather than lead them.
No. A move means the price changed — the informed market decided the earlier price was wrong. By the time you see it, the new price already reflects that information, so there is usually no edge left in simply following it. This page is educational market data, not betting advice.
It compares the average de-vigged price across recreational ('soft') bookmakers with the de-vigged Pinnacle price for the same outcome. A positive lean means soft books price the outcome higher than the sharp market does — typically because they shade their lines toward the side the betting public favors. It is a price-based proxy: real bet counts and money splits are proprietary to each bookmaker, and any site claiming to show them for the whole market is estimating, at best. We show the column only when at least three soft books have a fresh pre-match price.
This page shows market data only — de-vigged Pinnacle prices and how they moved. It contains no picks, no model probabilities and no betting recommendations, and nothing here is betting advice. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.