Data-driven writing on value betting, profitability and how the model thinks — free to read.
Fresh model previews for matches where we've flagged value — updated daily.
The market has shifted toward LSU in LSU vs Mississippi State: implied probability 78% → 85%. What sharp line movement means.
Model prediction for Philadelphia Flyers vs Ottawa Senators (NHL): win probabilities, expected scoring, form and head-to-head. The value bet is members-only.
Model prediction for Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga): win probabilities, expected scoring, form and head-to-head. The value bet is members-only.
Model prediction for Real Betis Balompié vs FC Barcelona (La Liga): win probabilities, expected scoring, form and head-to-head. The value bet is members-only.
All 9 Bundesliga fixtures from Oct 16–19, 2026: model win probabilities, expected goals and form — data-driven, no hype.
All 9 Ligue 1 fixtures from Oct 16–19, 2026: model win probabilities, expected goals and form — data-driven, no hype.
All 10 La Liga fixtures from Oct 16–19, 2026: model win probabilities, expected goals and form — data-driven, no hype.
Model prediction for West Bromwich Albion FC vs Blackburn Rovers FC (Championship): win probabilities, expected scoring, form and head-to-head. The value bet is
Our model gives Gauff 65% to win vs Badosa (35%) at the WTA Berlin German Open. Predicted total ~20.5 games; model leans Over 21.0 at ~64%. Form, H2H tension and where the value sits.
Read moreOur model gives de Minaur 85% to win vs Shapovalov (15%) at Queen's Club. Predicted total ~27.0 games; model leans Over 22.0 at ~58%. Form, H2H and where the value sits on grass.
Read moreOur model calls Shelton vs Sonego a genuine 50/50 on the moneyline. Predicted total ~30.5 games; model leans Over 25.0. Two massive servers on grass — here is why the total is the read, not the winner.
Read moreOur model gives Medvedev 88% to win vs Atmane (12%). Predicted total games ~26.0; model leans Over 22.5 at the Pinnacle line. Why an Elo-and-class lean is doing the work here, not form — and where the Over 22.5 edge comes from.
Read moreOur model gives Lehecka 61% to win vs Majchrzak (39%) on grass. Predicted total games ~28.9; model leans Over 23.5 at the Pinnacle line. Form, H2H and where the value is.
Read moreOur model gives Norrie 65% to win vs Davidovich Fokina (35%). Predicted total games ~26.4; model leans Over 23.0 at the Pinnacle line. Form, H2H and where the model's tension lies.
Read moreOur model makes the Angels 68% to win on the road vs Arizona (32%). Expected total ~8.65 runs — model leans Under 8.5 at 54%. Reid Detmers vs Merrill Kelly. Full breakdown inside.
Read moreOur model makes the Astros 57% to win at home vs the Tigers (43%). Expected total 8.81 runs — model leans Under 9.0. Kai-Wei Teng vs Troy Melton. Full breakdown inside.
Read moreOur model makes the Reds 57% to win at home vs the Mets (43%). Expected total 9.99 runs — model leans Over 8.5. Chase Burns vs Tobias Myers. Full breakdown inside.
Read moreFonseca 70% to win vs Hanfmann (30%). Predicted total games ~28.3; model leans Over 23.5 (~56%) at the Pinnacle line. Grass form, H2H and where the value is.
Read moreKhachanov 77% to win vs Quinn (23%). Predicted total games ~26.6; model leans Over 23.5 (~52%) at the Pinnacle line. Grass form, H2H and where the value is.
Read moreOur model gives Keys 76% to win vs Wang (24%). Predicted total games ~24.0; model leans Over 21.5 at the Pinnacle line. Form, H2H and where the value is.
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