Model predictions for Group D at the 2026 World Cup — each team's chance of winning the group, advancing to the knockout round and going deep. Free to read; the value bets for every group match are in our Football and All-Access plans.
| Team | Win group | Advance |
|---|---|---|
| USA | 35% | 78% |
| Australia | 26% | 70% |
| Paraguay | 20% | 62% |
| Türkiye | 19% | 60% |
Group D of the 2026 World Cup features USA, Australia, Paraguay and Türkiye. Australia carry the highest Elo rating in the group.
Our model favours USA to top the group (35%); Australia is also tipped to advance (70%).
Türkiye faces the toughest path, with a 40% chance of going out in the group stage.
The top two from each group, plus the eight best third-placed teams, advance to the round of 32.
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