Data-driven writing on value betting, profitability and how the model thinks — free to read.
The model went 5-of-6 on the winner market as the group deciders landed, but a goal-heavy night buried our Under tickets. Czechia–Mexico rescued the book; closing-line value held at +9.3pp.
Read moreCristiano Ronaldo made World Cup history, the model went 3-of-4 on the winner market, and Colombia and Croatia advanced — but a low-scoring slate stung four totals tickets. Closing-line value still held at +3.9pp.
Read moreMessi broke the men's World Cup scoring record, Mbappé and Haaland struck twice each, and the model went a perfect 4-of-4 on the winner market. The value book went 3-1 for +2.9 units.
Read moreSpain and Egypt delivered for the model, but two home favourites were held to draws, and the one qualifying value bet — a Uruguay Under — was sunk by a late equaliser. A 0-1, −1.7-unit day.
Read moreJapan's 4-0 and the Dutch handicap both landed, but two Under bets got buried in a high-scoring slate — a 2-2, +0.5-unit day. The model went 3-of-4; Ecuador's 0-0 was the miss.
Read moreBrazil's Under landed, but Scotland–Morocco and Türkiye–Paraguay both missed for a 1-2, −2.7-unit day. The model went 2-of-4 — and correctly stood down on USA's win over Australia.
Read moreCanada thrashed Qatar 6–0, Switzerland romped, but our value book lost 4.4 units on the day. Three losing bets, every one with positive closing-line value. The honest breakdown.
Read moreEngland's 4–2 over Croatia and DR Congo's +1.5 cover both cashed for a 2-0 day, +3.46 units. The 1X2 model went 3-of-4 — the one miss was Portugal's shock draw. The honest breakdown.
Read moreFour favourites, four correct calls, an average Brier near 0.10 — the model bounced back hard. Messi equalled a World Cup record and Haaland delivered. But our one value bet lost. The honest breakdown.
Read moreThree draws where we leaned to a side, Spain held 0-0 by debutants — the 1X2 model had its hardest matchday yet. The goals model held up better. Full honest breakdown inside.
Read moreThree of four 1X2 calls correct, the goals model excellent across the board, and our one settled value bet won. The Netherlands draw was the one miss — we own it. Here's the honest breakdown.
Read moreTwo draws, a Scotland upset, and a contrarian Australia call. Our 1X2 model had an off matchday — but the one value bet we placed, Switzerland Under 2.75, landed. Here's the honest breakdown.
Read moreCanada drew 1–1 with Bosnia and the USA thrashed Paraguay 4–1 on matchday 2. How our 10,000-simulation model called each match — and what four games tell us so far.
Read moreMexico beat South Africa 2–0 and South Korea edged Czech Republic 2–1 on matchday 1. Here's what our 10,000-simulation model said before kick-off — and where it was right.
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