Data-driven writing on value betting, profitability and how the model thinks — free to read.
Grass changes everything. How our surface-specific model rates the field at Wimbledon 2026, where the market misprices, and how we'd approach the betting.
Read moreThe MLB model is now live on v2 — two honest fixes: a look-ahead data leak patched and a smarter totals approach that defers to the sharp market.
Read moreOur NBA data source got geo-blocked in Europe. We rebuilt the entire pipeline on ESPN, recovered advanced stats, and restored the model to full strength.
Read moreOur NHL model is now leakage-free: Elo ratings are stored point-in-time, training data reflects 2025, and the model's numbers can finally be trusted.
Read moreTennis v3 closes a subtle look-ahead leak in serve stats, refreshes with two new seasons, and prunes noisy features — making the model honest and a touch sharper.
Read moreWe retrained and recalibrated our football model for World Cup 2026 — fixing a systematic draw-prediction flaw and reaching calibration parity with Pinnacle.
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