UFC: Tyson Pedro vs Rafael Alves Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Tyson Pedro vs Rafael Alves headlines a card with 22 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on July 25, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Tyson Pedro meets Rafael Alves in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Tyson Pedro a 80% chance to win. Method: 32% KO/TKO, 25% submission, 42% decision — a 43% chance this fight goes the distance. By our whole-history power rating (Bradley-Terry, the same method behind the win-probability read), Tyson Pedro rates above Rafael Alves.

Card breakdown

• Tyson Pedro vs Rafael Alves: model favours Tyson Pedro at 80% (Elo 1508 vs 1474) Method: 32% KO/TKO, 25% submission, 42% decision — a 43% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Nkosi Ndebele vs Brandon Davis: model favours Nkosi Ndebele at 70% (Elo 1500 vs 1434) Method: 31% KO/TKO, 11% submission, 59% decision — a 58% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Thad Jean vs Shamil Musaev: model favours Thad Jean at 50% (Elo 1500 vs 1500) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Sullivan Cauley vs Rasul Magomedov: model favours Sullivan Cauley at 50% (Elo 1500 vs 1500) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Bryce Meredith vs Michael Cyr: model favours Bryce Meredith at 50% (Elo 1500 vs 1500) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev: model favours Saygid Izagakhmaev at 57% (Elo 1500 vs 1486) Method: 28% KO/TKO, 24% submission, 49% decision — a 49% chance this fight goes the distance.