UFC: Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues headlines a card with 21 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on August 23, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Anthony Hernandez meets Gregory Rodrigues in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Anthony Hernandez a 60% chance to win. Method: 37% KO/TKO, 22% submission, 41% decision — a 41% chance this fight goes the distance. By our whole-history power rating (Bradley-Terry, the same method behind the win-probability read), Anthony Hernandez rates above Gregory Rodrigues.

Card breakdown

• Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues: model favours Anthony Hernandez at 60% (Elo 1601 vs 1605) Method: 37% KO/TKO, 22% submission, 41% decision — a 41% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Shamil Gaziev vs Kennedy Nzechukwu: model favours Kennedy Nzechukwu at 58% (Elo 1506 vs 1524) Method: 51% KO/TKO, 9% submission, 39% decision — a 37% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze: model favours Reinier de Ridder at 75% (Elo 1545 vs 1561) Method: 24% KO/TKO, 19% submission, 57% decision — a 59% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Nasrat Haqparast vs Chris Padilla: model favours Chris Padilla at 54% (Elo 1573 vs 1559) Method: 25% KO/TKO, 10% submission, 65% decision — a 65% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey: model favours Jackson McVey at 62% (Elo 1501 vs 1487) Method: 33% KO/TKO, 35% submission, 33% decision — a 34% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas: model favours Lerryan Douglas at 60% (Elo 1521 vs 1518) Method: 42% KO/TKO, 12% submission, 46% decision — a 43% chance this fight goes the distance.