UFC: Alice Pereira vs Darya Zheleznyakova Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Alice Pereira vs Darya Zheleznyakova headlines a card with 21 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on October 11, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Alice Pereira meets Darya Zheleznyakova in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Alice Pereira a 61% chance to win. Method: 52% KO/TKO, 13% submission, 35% decision — a 37% chance this fight goes the distance.

Card breakdown

• Alice Pereira vs Darya Zheleznyakova: model favours Alice Pereira at 61% (Elo 1499 vs 1500) Method: 52% KO/TKO, 13% submission, 35% decision — a 37% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris: model favours RJ Harris at 75% (Elo 1484 vs 1515) Method: 40% KO/TKO, 14% submission, 46% decision — a 45% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka: model favours Andre Fili at 59% (Elo 1503 vs 1481) Method: 28% KO/TKO, 19% submission, 53% decision — a 53% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan: model favours Christian Leroy Duncan at 56% (Elo 1647 vs 1593) Method: 27% KO/TKO, 17% submission, 56% decision — a 55% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro: model favours Felipe Franco at 85% (Elo 1502 vs 1460) Method: 30% KO/TKO, 16% submission, 54% decision — a 58% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto: model favours Melissa Gatto at 51% (Elo 1485 vs 1498) Method: 22% KO/TKO, 12% submission, 66% decision — a 65% chance this fight goes the distance.