Primeira Liga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 28–31, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Primeira Liga weekend (Aug 28–31, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 2 of 6 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Primeira Liga hub.

• Rio Ave FC 0–4 Sporting Clube de Portugal — model lean: Sporting Clube de Portugal (56%) ✅
• FC Arouca 2–1 CS Marítimo — model lean: the draw (49%) ❌
• FC Alverca 1–1 CD Santa Clara — model lean: CD Santa Clara (72%) ❌
• Académico de Viseu FC 0–3 FC Porto — model lean: FC Porto (77%) ✅
• CD Nacional 2–3 CF Estrela da Amadora — model lean: the draw (76%) ❌
• Casa Pia AC 0–1 Moreirense FC — model lean: the draw (57%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• FC Alverca vs CD Santa Clara — Over2.25: ❌ Lost (-0.30u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Académico de Viseu FC vs FC Porto — FC Porto +0: ✅ Won (+0.35u, CLV +2.4pp)
• CD Nacional vs CF Estrela da Amadora — CF Estrela da Amadora +0.25: ✅ Won (+0.67u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Casa Pia AC vs Moreirense FC — Moreirense FC +0: ✅ Won (+2.04u, CLV +3.7pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 6 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.