Championship Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 28–31, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Championship weekend (Aug 28–31, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 3 of 12 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Championship hub.

• Wrexham AFC 1–2 Birmingham City FC — model lean: the draw (88%) ❌
• Wolverhampton Wanderers FC 4–1 Stoke City FC — model lean: Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (68%) ✅
• Middlesbrough FC 3–1 West Bromwich Albion FC — model lean: West Bromwich Albion FC (65%) ❌
• Derby County FC 0–3 Swansea City AFC — model lean: the draw (51%) ❌
• Bristol City FC 2–1 Portsmouth FC — model lean: Portsmouth FC (58%) ❌
• Southampton FC 5–1 Millwall FC — model lean: Millwall FC (72%) ❌
• Charlton Athletic FC 1–0 Preston North End FC — model lean: Charlton Athletic FC (87%) ✅
• Watford FC 1–1 West Ham United FC — model lean: Watford FC (76%) ❌
• Blackburn Rovers FC 1–2 Queens Park Rangers FC — model lean: the draw (49%) ❌
• Bolton Wanderers FC 0–1 Lincoln City FC — model lean: Bolton Wanderers FC (75%) ❌
• Norwich City FC 4–1 Burnley FC — model lean: the draw (51%) ❌
• Cardiff City FC 2–2 Sheffield United FC — model lean: the draw (85%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Wrexham AFC vs Birmingham City FC — Wrexham AFC -0.25: ❌ Lost (-1.57u, CLV +9.4pp)
• Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Stoke City FC — Wolverhampton Wanderers FC to win: ✅ Won (+1.07u, CLV -3.7pp)
• Middlesbrough FC vs West Bromwich Albion FC — Under2.75: ❌ Lost (-1.54u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Derby County FC vs Swansea City AFC — Over2.25: ✅ Won (+1.95u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Southampton FC vs Millwall FC — Under2.75: ❌ Lost (-0.92u, CLV -3.4pp)
• Watford FC vs West Ham United FC — Over3.0: ❌ Lost (-0.87u, CLV +1.0pp)
• Blackburn Rovers FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-0.63u, CLV -3.7pp)
• Norwich City FC vs Burnley FC — Under2.75: ❌ Lost (-0.86u, CLV -5.5pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 12 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.