New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction — NFL Week 5 (2026)
This preview was published 176h before kickoff — the pick is only revealed after settlement.
New England Patriots host Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 5, kicking off October 11, 2026 at 18:00. This is a marquee matchup by our power ratings: New England Patriots sit at Elo 1570 (No. 7 in our NFL ratings) and Las Vegas Raiders at 1449 (No. 20).
Elo lean
Adjusted for the standard home-field edge, the Elo gap works out to roughly 73% for New England Patriots (73% New England Patriots / 27% Las Vegas Raiders). Treat that as a power-rating read, not a full forecast — the complete model for this game publishes when lines open.
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- New England Patriots: 2-3 in their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first); latest 35-6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars.
- Las Vegas Raiders: 4-1 in their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first); latest 27-35 @ New Orleans Saints.
Head-to-head
These teams have met 4 time(s) in our data window: New England Patriots won 1, Las Vegas Raiders won 3. Most recently: New England Patriots 13-20 Las Vegas Raiders on 2025-09-07.
Reading Between the Records
Our AI reads the same model data behind this preview and writes an extra analytical section — free members see it before kickoff. After the match it becomes public here.