UFC: Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja headlines a card with 20 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on September 20, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Joshua Van meets Alexandre Pantoja in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Joshua Van a 72% chance to win. Method: 29% KO/TKO, 16% submission, 56% decision — a 58% chance this fight goes the distance. By our whole-history power rating (Bradley-Terry, the same method behind the win-probability read), Joshua Van rates above Alexandre Pantoja.

Card breakdown

• Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja: model favours Joshua Van at 72% (Elo 1631 vs 1634) Method: 29% KO/TKO, 16% submission, 56% decision — a 58% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy: model favours Arman Tsarukyan at 81% (Elo 1638 vs 1562) Method: 44% KO/TKO, 9% submission, 46% decision — a 49% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi: model favours Dooho Choi at 89% (Elo 1484 vs 1551) Method: 38% KO/TKO, 12% submission, 50% decision — a 50% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega: model favours Renato Moicano at 61% (Elo 1599 vs 1565) Method: 23% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 56% decision — a 58% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski: model favours Iwo Baraniewski at 73% (Elo 1569 vs 1543) Method: 57% KO/TKO, 13% submission, 30% decision — a 29% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf: model favours Gable Steveson at 90% (Elo 1515 vs 1468) Method: 58% KO/TKO, 10% submission, 32% decision — a 31% chance this fight goes the distance.