UFC: Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara headlines a card with 10 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on August 09, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Amanda Lemos meets Alexia Thainara in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Alexia Thainara a 81% chance to win. Method: 21% KO/TKO, 25% submission, 54% decision — a 53% chance this fight goes the distance. By our whole-history power rating (Bradley-Terry, the same method behind the win-probability read), Alexia Thainara rates above Amanda Lemos.

Card breakdown

• Amanda Lemos vs Alexia Thainara: model favours Alexia Thainara at 81% (Elo 1547 vs 1548) Method: 21% KO/TKO, 25% submission, 54% decision — a 53% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld: model favours Quillan Salkilld at 76% (Elo 1595 vs 1584) Method: 46% KO/TKO, 15% submission, 39% decision — a 39% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Ty Miller vs Billy Ray Goff: model favours Ty Miller at 63% (Elo 1515 vs 1483) Method: 52% KO/TKO, 13% submission, 35% decision — a 32% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Juliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira: model favours Juliana Miller at 51% (Elo 1482 vs 1455) Method: 22% KO/TKO, 21% submission, 58% decision — a 59% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bruno Lopes: model favours Diyar Nurgozhay at 62% (Elo 1485 vs 1488) Method: 25% KO/TKO, 18% submission, 57% decision — a 53% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo: model favours Diego Ferreira at 66% (Elo 1549 vs 1512) Method: 36% KO/TKO, 16% submission, 49% decision — a 54% chance this fight goes the distance.