Serie A Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Oct 23–26, 2026)
The weekend slate
10 Serie A fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Oct 23–26, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Torino FC vs AC Monza. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Serie A hub.
Fixture-by-fixture model read
Torino FC vs AC Monza — Fri, Oct 23, 20:45
Our model prices Torino FC at 31%, the draw at 51% and AC Monza at 18%. The model's expected total is ~2.5 goals, leaning Under 2.5 (~51%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Torino FC W-W-D-L-W, AC Monza W-L-W-L-D.
Find the bets where soft books misprice the odds.
See today's value bets — free accountCagliari Calcio vs Bologna FC 1909 — Sat, Oct 24, 15:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): Cagliari Calcio L-D-W-W-W, Bologna FC 1909 L-W-D-L-D.
Como 1907 vs US Sassuolo Calcio — Sat, Oct 24, 15:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): Como 1907 W-W-L-D-L, US Sassuolo Calcio L-D-L-W-D.
SSC Napoli vs AS Roma — Sat, Oct 24, 18:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): SSC Napoli W-L-L-W-D, AS Roma W-W-L-D-D.
SS Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913 — Sat, Oct 24, 20:45
Form (last 5, most recent first): SS Lazio W-W-W-D-W, Parma Calcio 1913 L-L-W-L-D.
FC Internazionale Milano vs ACF Fiorentina — Sun, Oct 25, 12:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Internazionale Milano W-W-L-W-D, ACF Fiorentina L-L-D-W-L.
Atalanta BC vs Frosinone Calcio — Sun, Oct 25, 15:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): Atalanta BC L-W-L-L-L, Frosinone Calcio W-L-W-D-W.
Genoa CFC vs Venezia FC — Sun, Oct 25, 15:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): Genoa CFC L-W-L-D-L, Venezia FC W-L-L-L-L.
US Lecce vs Juventus FC — Sun, Oct 25, 18:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): US Lecce W-L-L-W-L, Juventus FC L-D-W-L-D.
Udinese Calcio vs AC Milan — Sun, Oct 25, 20:45
Form (last 5, most recent first): Udinese Calcio L-L-L-L-L, AC Milan W-D-W-D-D.
An honest caveat
A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.
Reading Between the Form Lines
Our AI reads the same model data behind this preview and writes an extra analytical section — free members see it before kickoff. After the match it becomes public here.