Premier League Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Oct 23–26, 2026)

The weekend slate

10 Premier League fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Oct 23–26, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Ipswich Town FC vs Nottingham Forest FC. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Premier League hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

Ipswich Town FC vs Nottingham Forest FC — Fri, Oct 23, 21:00

Our model prices Ipswich Town FC at 58%, the draw at 30% and Nottingham Forest FC at 12%. The model's expected total is ~2.4 goals, leaning Under 2.75 (~51%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Ipswich Town FC L-W-L-W-L, Nottingham Forest FC L-L-L-W-D.

Aston Villa FC vs Manchester City FC — Sat, Oct 24, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Aston Villa FC W-W-W-D-W, Manchester City FC W-W-L-W-W.

Coventry City FC vs Fulham FC — Sat, Oct 24, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Coventry City FC L-W-W-L-L, Fulham FC W-L-D-D-L.

Arsenal FC vs Everton FC — Sat, Oct 24, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Arsenal FC D-W-W-W-L, Everton FC L-D-W-D-D.

Chelsea FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC — Sat, Oct 24, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Chelsea FC W-W-L-D-L, Tottenham Hotspur FC W-D-L-D-D.

Manchester United FC vs AFC Bournemouth — Sun, Oct 25, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Manchester United FC L-D-L-D-D, AFC Bournemouth W-L-L-D-D.

Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC — Sun, Oct 25, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Liverpool FC W-W-W-L-W, Brighton & Hove Albion FC W-W-W-W-D.

Hull City AFC vs Brentford FC — Sun, Oct 25, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Hull City AFC L-D-L-D-D, Brentford FC L-D-W-D-D.

Crystal Palace FC vs Newcastle United FC — Sun, Oct 25, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Crystal Palace FC L-W-D-L-W, Newcastle United FC L-L-W-L-D.

Sunderland AFC vs Leeds United FC — Sun, Oct 25, 17:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Sunderland AFC L-L-L-L-D, Leeds United FC D-L-D-W-D.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.