Premier League Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Sep 11–14, 2026)
The weekend slate
10 Premier League fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Sep 11–14, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Premier League hub.
Fixture-by-fixture model read
AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford FC — Sat, Sep 12, 16:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): AFC Bournemouth D-D-L-D-D, Brentford FC D-D-W-D-D.
Find the bets where soft books misprice the odds.
See today's value bets — free accountChelsea FC vs Hull City AFC — Sat, Sep 12, 16:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): Chelsea FC L-W-W-L-W, Hull City AFC D-W-W-W-W.
Liverpool FC vs Fulham FC — Sat, Sep 12, 16:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): Liverpool FC W-W-D-D-D, Fulham FC L-L-L-W-D.
Aston Villa FC vs Nottingham Forest FC — Sat, Sep 12, 16:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): Aston Villa FC W-D-L-L-W, Nottingham Forest FC D-D-L-D-L.
Crystal Palace FC vs Ipswich Town FC — Sat, Sep 12, 16:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): Crystal Palace FC W-L-L-L-D, Ipswich Town FC L-L-W-W-D.
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Everton FC — Sat, Sep 12, 18:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): Tottenham Hotspur FC D-L-L-W-L, Everton FC D-D-W-L-L.
Sunderland AFC vs Arsenal FC — Sat, Sep 12, 21:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): Sunderland AFC D-W-L-W-W, Arsenal FC W-W-W-W-D.
Coventry City FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC — Sun, Sep 13, 15:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): Coventry City FC L-L-L-W-W, Brighton & Hove Albion FC D-L-W-L-L.
Manchester United FC vs Manchester City FC — Sun, Sep 13, 17:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): Manchester United FC W-D-W-L-W, Manchester City FC W-W-W-W-L.
Leeds United FC vs Newcastle United FC — Mon, Sep 14, 21:00
Form (last 5, most recent first): Leeds United FC D-D-W-L-W, Newcastle United FC D-W-D-L-W.
An honest caveat
A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.
Reading the Form Beneath the Numbers
Our AI reads the same model data behind this preview and writes an extra analytical section — free members see it before kickoff. After the match it becomes public here.