Premier League Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Sep 4–7, 2026)

The weekend slate

10 Premier League fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Sep 4–7, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Ipswich Town FC vs Liverpool FC. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Premier League hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

Ipswich Town FC vs Liverpool FC — Fri, Sep 4, 21:00

Our model prices Ipswich Town FC at 16%, the draw at 36% and Liverpool FC at 48%. The model's expected total is ~3.0 goals, leaning Over 3 (~50%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Ipswich Town FC L-W-W-D-D, Liverpool FC D-D-D-L-D.

Newcastle United FC vs AFC Bournemouth — Sat, Sep 5, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Newcastle United FC W-D-L-W-D, AFC Bournemouth D-L-D-D-W.

Brentford FC vs Sunderland AFC — Sat, Sep 5, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Brentford FC D-W-D-D-L, Sunderland AFC W-L-W-W-D.

Fulham FC vs Crystal Palace FC — Sat, Sep 5, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Fulham FC L-L-W-D-L, Crystal Palace FC L-L-L-D-L.

Manchester City FC vs Coventry City FC — Sat, Sep 5, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Manchester City FC W-W-L-D-W, Coventry City FC L-L-W-W-W.

Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Leeds United FC — Sat, Sep 5, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Brighton & Hove Albion FC L-W-L-L-W, Leeds United FC D-W-L-W-D.

Nottingham Forest FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC — Sat, Sep 5, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Nottingham Forest FC D-L-D-L-D, Tottenham Hotspur FC L-L-W-L-D.

Hull City AFC vs Aston Villa FC — Sat, Sep 5, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Hull City AFC W-W-W-W-D, Aston Villa FC L-L-W-W-D.

Everton FC vs Manchester United FC — Sun, Sep 6, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Everton FC D-W-L-L-D, Manchester United FC W-L-W-W-D.

Arsenal FC vs Chelsea FC — Sun, Sep 6, 17:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Arsenal FC W-W-D-W-W, Chelsea FC W-W-L-W-D.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.