Premier League Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Aug 28–31, 2026)

The weekend slate

10 Premier League fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Aug 28–31, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Crystal Palace FC vs Manchester City FC. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Premier League hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

Crystal Palace FC vs Manchester City FC — Fri, Aug 28, 21:00

Our model prices Crystal Palace FC at 5%, the draw at 5% and Manchester City FC at 90%. The model's expected total is ~3.0 goals, leaning Over 2.75 (~52%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Crystal Palace FC L-L-D-L-D, Manchester City FC W-L-D-W-W.

Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest FC — Sat, Aug 29, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Liverpool FC D-D-L-D-L, Nottingham Forest FC L-D-L-D-W.

Coventry City FC vs Hull City AFC — Sat, Aug 29, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Coventry City FC L-W-W-W-W, Hull City AFC W-W-W-D-W.

AFC Bournemouth vs Everton FC — Sat, Aug 29, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): AFC Bournemouth L-D-D-W-W, Everton FC W-L-L-D-D.

Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Newcastle United FC — Sat, Aug 29, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Tottenham Hotspur FC L-W-L-D-W, Newcastle United FC D-L-W-D-W.

Leeds United FC vs Brentford FC — Sun, Aug 30, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Leeds United FC W-L-W-D-W, Brentford FC W-D-D-L-W.

Sunderland AFC vs Fulham FC — Sun, Aug 30, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Sunderland AFC L-W-W-D-D, Fulham FC L-W-D-L-L.

Chelsea FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion FC — Sun, Aug 30, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Chelsea FC W-L-W-D-L, Brighton & Hove Albion FC W-L-L-W-L.

Manchester United FC vs Ipswich Town FC — Sun, Aug 30, 17:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Manchester United FC L-W-W-D-W, Ipswich Town FC W-W-D-D-W.

Aston Villa FC vs Arsenal FC — Mon, Aug 31, 21:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Aston Villa FC L-W-W-D-L, Arsenal FC W-D-W-W-W.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.