Eredivisie Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Sep 11–14, 2026)

The weekend slate

9 Eredivisie fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Sep 11–14, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is AZ vs Willem II Tilburg. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Eredivisie hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

AZ vs Willem II Tilburg — Fri, Sep 11, 20:00

Our model prices AZ at 80%, the draw at 14% and Willem II Tilburg at 6%. The model's expected total is ~3.3 goals, leaning Under 4 (~53%). Form (last 5, most recent first): AZ W-W-W-W-W, Willem II Tilburg L-D-L-L.

FC Twente '65 vs ADO Den Haag — Sat, Sep 12, 16:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Twente '65 W-D-W-W-L, ADO Den Haag L-D-L-L-L.

Go Ahead Eagles vs FC Groningen — Sat, Sep 12, 18:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): Go Ahead Eagles D-L-W-D-W, FC Groningen D-L-L-W-W.

Fortuna Sittard vs AFC Ajax — Sat, Sep 12, 20:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Fortuna Sittard W-W-L-W-D, AFC Ajax L-W-D-W-D.

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs NEC — Sat, Sep 12, 21:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden D-L-L-L-L, NEC D-L-W-W-L.

SBV Excelsior vs FC Utrecht — Sun, Sep 13, 12:15

Form (last 5, most recent first): SBV Excelsior D-W-W-L-W, FC Utrecht D-L-D-L-L.

SC Heerenveen vs Telstar 1963 — Sun, Sep 13, 14:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): SC Heerenveen L-D-L-D-W, Telstar 1963 L-D-L-L-W.

PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord Rotterdam — Sun, Sep 13, 16:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): PEC Zwolle D-L-W-L-L, Feyenoord Rotterdam L-W-D-W-D.

PSV vs Sparta Rotterdam — Sun, Sep 13, 20:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): PSV D-W-W-W-W, Sparta Rotterdam D-L-D-W-L.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.