Championship Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Oct 23–26, 2026)

The weekend slate

12 Championship fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Oct 23–26, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Bolton Wanderers FC vs Middlesbrough FC. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Championship hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

Bolton Wanderers FC vs Middlesbrough FC — Fri, Oct 23, 21:00

Our model prices Bolton Wanderers FC at 17%, the draw at 26% and Middlesbrough FC at 58%. The model's expected total is ~2.8 goals, leaning Over 3 (~52%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Bolton Wanderers FC D-W-L-W-W, Middlesbrough FC D-W-W-D-D.

Charlton Athletic FC vs Norwich City FC — Sat, Oct 24, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Charlton Athletic FC L-D-D-L-D, Norwich City FC L-L-L-L-L.

Portsmouth FC vs Millwall FC — Sat, Oct 24, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Portsmouth FC D-W-W-L-D, Millwall FC D-L-W-D-D.

Sheffield United FC vs Derby County FC — Sat, Oct 24, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Sheffield United FC W-L-W-L-L, Derby County FC L-L-D-D-L.

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Watford FC — Sat, Oct 24, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Wolverhampton Wanderers FC D-W-L-L-W, Watford FC W-L-L-L-L.

Blackburn Rovers FC vs Wrexham AFC — Sat, Oct 24, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Blackburn Rovers FC L-W-W-D-W, Wrexham AFC W-L-D-W-L.

West Ham United FC vs Southampton FC — Sat, Oct 24, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): West Ham United FC W-W-D-D-W, Southampton FC D-W-W-L-W.

Queens Park Rangers FC vs Swansea City AFC — Sat, Oct 24, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Queens Park Rangers FC L-W-D-D-D, Swansea City AFC L-W-W-W-W.

Lincoln City FC vs Burnley FC — Sat, Oct 24, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Lincoln City FC D-L-L-L-W, Burnley FC L-D-W-D-L.

Preston North End FC vs West Bromwich Albion FC — Sat, Oct 24, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Preston North End FC L-L-L-D-L, West Bromwich Albion FC W-W-L-L-D.

Stoke City FC vs Bristol City FC — Sat, Oct 24, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Stoke City FC W-L-W-W-W, Bristol City FC L-L-D-W-L.

Cardiff City FC vs Birmingham City FC — Sat, Oct 24, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Cardiff City FC D-W-L-W-L, Birmingham City FC W-W-W-D-W.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.