Championship Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Sep 11–14, 2026)

The weekend slate

12 Championship fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Sep 11–14, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is West Ham United FC vs Wrexham AFC. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Championship hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

West Ham United FC vs Wrexham AFC — Fri, Sep 11, 21:00

Our model prices West Ham United FC at 54%, the draw at 34% and Wrexham AFC at 12%. The model's expected total is ~3.0 goals, leaning Under 3 (~53%). Form (last 5, most recent first): West Ham United FC W-W-W-D-L, Wrexham AFC D-D-W-L-D.

West Bromwich Albion FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC — Sat, Sep 12, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): West Bromwich Albion FC W-W-D-L-W, Queens Park Rangers FC D-L-W-W-D.

Derby County FC vs Birmingham City FC — Sat, Sep 12, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Derby County FC L-L-W-L-D, Birmingham City FC L-D-D-W-D.

Bolton Wanderers FC vs Cardiff City FC — Sat, Sep 12, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Bolton Wanderers FC L-L-L-L-D, Cardiff City FC D-L-L-D-D.

Charlton Athletic FC vs Portsmouth FC — Sat, Sep 12, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Charlton Athletic FC D-L-D-W-W, Portsmouth FC W-L-L-W-L.

Swansea City AFC vs Burnley FC — Sat, Sep 12, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Swansea City AFC L-D-W-W-D, Burnley FC D-L-D-L-L.

Blackburn Rovers FC vs Millwall FC — Sat, Sep 12, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Blackburn Rovers FC L-L-D-L-W, Millwall FC W-L-L-W-W.

Middlesbrough FC vs Norwich City FC — Sat, Sep 12, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Middlesbrough FC W-D-W-L-W, Norwich City FC W-W-L-W-L.

Southampton FC vs Bristol City FC — Sat, Sep 12, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Southampton FC W-D-D-W-W, Bristol City FC W-W-W-D-L.

Preston North End FC vs Lincoln City FC — Sat, Sep 12, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Preston North End FC L-W-L-L-L, Lincoln City FC D-D-W-L-L.

Watford FC vs Stoke City FC — Sat, Sep 12, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Watford FC W-L-L-D-D, Stoke City FC D-W-W-L-L.

Sheffield United FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FC — Sun, Sep 13, 13:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Sheffield United FC W-L-W-D-D, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC D-L-W-W-D.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.