Championship Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Sep 4–7, 2026)

The weekend slate

12 Championship fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Sep 4–7, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Championship hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

Stoke City FC vs Charlton Athletic FC — Sat, Sep 5, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Stoke City FC W-L-L-L-L, Charlton Athletic FC D-W-W-W-L.

Preston North End FC vs Blackburn Rovers FC — Sat, Sep 5, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Preston North End FC L-L-L-L-L, Blackburn Rovers FC D-L-W-D-L.

Lincoln City FC vs Southampton FC — Sat, Sep 5, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Lincoln City FC D-W-L-L, Southampton FC D-W-W-L-L.

West Ham United FC vs Derby County FC — Sat, Sep 5, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): West Ham United FC W-D-L-D-W, Derby County FC W-L-D-L-L.

Burnley FC vs Bristol City FC — Sat, Sep 5, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Burnley FC D-L-L-D-D, Bristol City FC W-W-D-L-W.

Millwall FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC — Sat, Sep 5, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Millwall FC L-L-W-W-L, Bolton Wanderers FC L-L-D-W.

Sheffield United FC vs Norwich City FC — Sat, Sep 5, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Sheffield United FC W-D-D-D-W, Norwich City FC L-W-L-L-L.

Queens Park Rangers FC vs Middlesbrough FC — Sat, Sep 5, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Queens Park Rangers FC W-W-D-W-L, Middlesbrough FC D-W-L-W-D.

Portsmouth FC vs Cardiff City FC — Sat, Sep 5, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Portsmouth FC L-L-W-L-D, Cardiff City FC L-D-D-D.

West Bromwich Albion FC vs Watford FC — Sat, Sep 5, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): West Bromwich Albion FC D-L-W-W-L, Watford FC L-D-D-W-L.

Swansea City AFC vs Wrexham AFC — Sat, Sep 5, 21:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Swansea City AFC W-W-D-W-W, Wrexham AFC W-L-D-D-D.

Birmingham City FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FC — Sun, Sep 6, 13:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Birmingham City FC D-W-D-D-D, Wolverhampton Wanderers FC L-W-W-D-D.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.