Bundesliga Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Oct 23–26, 2026)

The weekend slate

9 Bundesliga fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Oct 23–26, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Bundesliga hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — Fri, Oct 23, 20:30

Our model prices VfB Stuttgart at 71%, the draw at 23% and Borussia Mönchengladbach at 6%. The model's expected total is ~3.1 goals, leaning Over 3.75 (~50%). Form (last 5, most recent first): VfB Stuttgart L-W-L-L-W, Borussia Mönchengladbach L-L-L-L-L.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV — Sat, Oct 24, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): SC Paderborn 07 D-L-W-L-L, Hamburger SV W-W-W-L-L.

RB Leipzig vs SV 07 Elversberg — Sat, Oct 24, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): RB Leipzig L-W-L-W-L, SV 07 Elversberg W-L-D-L-W.

1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04 — Sat, Oct 24, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): 1. FC Köln L-W-L-D-L, FC Schalke 04 L-L-D-W-D.

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Werder Bremen — Sat, Oct 24, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): 1. FSV Mainz 05 W-L-W-L-W, SV Werder Bremen D-D-W-D-W.

FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin — Sat, Oct 24, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Augsburg L-D-L-D-W, 1. FC Union Berlin D-W-L-L-L.

Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt — Sat, Oct 24, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Borussia Dortmund D-D-W-W-W, Eintracht Frankfurt W-L-D-W-L.

TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Sun, Oct 25, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): TSG Hoffenheim W-L-L-W-L, Bayer 04 Leverkusen W-W-W-D-W.

SC Freiburg vs FC Bayern München — Sun, Oct 25, 17:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): SC Freiburg L-W-D-W-W, FC Bayern München W-D-W-W-D.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.