Bundesliga Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Sep 11–14, 2026)

The weekend slate

9 Bundesliga fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Sep 11–14, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is 1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Bundesliga hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — Fri, Sep 11, 20:30

Our model prices 1. FC Union Berlin at 14%, the draw at 81% and FC Schalke 04 at 5%. The model's expected total is ~2.5 goals, leaning Over 2.75 (~53%). Form (last 5, most recent first): 1. FC Union Berlin L-D-W-W-D, FC Schalke 04 D-L-W-L-W.

FC Augsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Sat, Sep 12, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Augsburg W-W-L-W-W, Bayer 04 Leverkusen W-L-D-L-W.

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt — Sat, Sep 12, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): 1. FSV Mainz 05 W-D-W-L-W, Eintracht Frankfurt L-D-D-L-L.

SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — Sat, Sep 12, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): SC Freiburg W-W-W-L-D, Borussia Mönchengladbach L-L-W-L-W.

TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart — Sat, Sep 12, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): TSG Hoffenheim L-L-L-W-D, VfB Stuttgart W-L-D-W-D.

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 — Sat, Sep 12, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Borussia Dortmund W-W-W-W-L, SC Paderborn 07 L-D-W-D-L.

1. FC Köln vs SV Werder Bremen — Sat, Sep 12, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): 1. FC Köln L-W-L-L-D, SV Werder Bremen W-L-L-L-L.

RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV — Sun, Sep 13, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): RB Leipzig L-W-L-W-L, Hamburger SV L-L-D-W-W.

SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Bayern München — Sun, Sep 13, 17:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): SV 07 Elversberg W-W-W-L-W, FC Bayern München D-W-W-W-D.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.