Bundesliga Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Sep 4–7, 2026)

The weekend slate

9 Bundesliga fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Sep 4–7, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Bundesliga hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln — Fri, Sep 4, 20:30

Our model prices VfB Stuttgart at 5%, the draw at 0% and 1. FC Köln at 95%. The model's expected total is ~3.4 goals, leaning Over 3.5 (~51%). Form (last 5, most recent first): VfB Stuttgart L-D-W-D-D, 1. FC Köln W-L-L-D-L.

SC Paderborn 07 vs SC Freiburg — Sat, Sep 5, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): SC Paderborn 07 D-W-D-L-L, SC Freiburg W-W-L-D-L.

SV Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig — Sat, Sep 5, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): SV Werder Bremen L-L-L-L-D, RB Leipzig W-L-W-L-W.

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV 07 Elversberg — Sat, Sep 5, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Borussia Mönchengladbach L-W-L-W-D, SV 07 Elversberg W-W-L-W-D.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin — Sat, Sep 5, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Bayer 04 Leverkusen L-D-L-W-W, 1. FC Union Berlin D-W-W-D-L.

TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund — Sat, Sep 5, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): TSG Hoffenheim L-L-W-D-W, Borussia Dortmund W-W-W-L-W.

FC Schalke 04 vs FC Bayern München — Sat, Sep 5, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Schalke 04 L-W-L-W-W, FC Bayern München W-W-W-D-W.

Hamburger SV vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Sun, Sep 6, 15:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Hamburger SV L-D-W-W-L, 1. FSV Mainz 05 D-W-L-W-L.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg — Sun, Sep 6, 17:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Eintracht Frankfurt D-D-L-L-D, FC Augsburg W-L-W-W-D.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.