Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Prediction — NFL Week 4 (2026)
This preview was published 152h before kickoff — the pick is only revealed after settlement.
Buffalo Bills host New England Patriots in NFL Week 4, kicking off October 04, 2026 at 18:00. This is a marquee matchup by our power ratings: Buffalo Bills sit at Elo 1646 (No. 2 in our NFL ratings) and New England Patriots at 1570 (No. 8).
Elo lean
Adjusted for the standard home-field edge, the Elo gap works out to roughly 67% for Buffalo Bills (67% Buffalo Bills / 33% New England Patriots). Treat that as a power-rating read, not a full forecast — the complete model for this game publishes when lines open.
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- Buffalo Bills: 4-1 in their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first); latest 24-16 vs Los Angeles Chargers.
- New England Patriots: 2-3 in their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first); latest 35-6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars.
Head-to-head
These teams have met 5 time(s) in our data window: Buffalo Bills won 3, New England Patriots won 2. Most recently: New England Patriots 31-35 Buffalo Bills on 2025-12-14.
Reading Between the Records
Our AI reads the same model data behind this preview and writes an extra analytical section — free members see it before kickoff. After the match it becomes public here.