Date: Thu, 08 October 2026 at 04:00
Mariano Navone faces Pablo Carreno Busta at Shanghai Masters on hard court in a best-of-3 format. Here is how our model reads the matchup.
Our model makes Pablo Carreno Busta a slight favourite at 58% to win. Their Elo ratings are tightly bunched (1609 to 1583).
Hard court is not Mariano Navone's favoured surface; Pablo Carreno Busta has struggled lately, 3 wins from 10.
The pair have met just once, with Mariano Navone winning.
On total games, the model projects about 24.2 and leans under the 22.5 line.
Expected ~24.2 games · leans Under 22.5