How many games will each NFL team win in 2026? Our season simulator runs the complete schedule 10,000 times with Monte Carlo methods, driven by Elo-style power ratings built from last season's results — the same numbers behind our NFL hub.
| # | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | NFC West | 11.7 | 92% |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC South | 11.3 | 90% |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | AFC East | 11.2 | 89% |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | NFC North | 11.1 | 86% |
| 5 | New England Patriots | AFC East | 10.7 | 84% |
| 6 | Denver Broncos | AFC West | 10.6 | 82% |
| 7 | Kansas City Chiefs | AFC West | 10.6 | 80% |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | AFC North | 10.3 | 74% |
| 9 | Seattle Seahawks | NFC West | 10.2 | 74% |
| 10 | Detroit Lions | NFC North | 9.9 | 66% |
| 11 | Los Angeles Rams | NFC West | 9.7 | 63% |
| 12 | Green Bay Packers | NFC North | 9.1 | 47% |
| 13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | AFC North | 9.0 | 47% |
| 14 | Philadelphia Eagles | NFC East | 8.8 | 53% |
| 15 | Chicago Bears | NFC North | 8.8 | 39% |
| 16 | Indianapolis Colts | AFC South | 8.7 | 41% |
| 17 | Cincinnati Bengals | AFC North | 8.7 | 39% |
| 18 | Cleveland Browns | AFC North | 8.4 | 33% |
| 19 | New York Giants | NFC East | 8.1 | 37% |
| 20 | Houston Texans | AFC South | 7.9 | 23% |
| 21 | Atlanta Falcons | NFC South | 7.9 | 39% |
| 22 | Carolina Panthers | NFC South | 7.8 | 38% |
| 23 | Dallas Cowboys | NFC East | 7.4 | 23% |
| 24 | Las Vegas Raiders | AFC West | 7.1 | 10% |
| 25 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | NFC South | 6.7 | 17% |
| 26 | New Orleans Saints | NFC South | 6.7 | 17% |
| 27 | Washington Commanders | NFC East | 6.1 | 6% |
| 28 | Los Angeles Chargers | AFC West | 5.9 | 3% |
| 29 | New York Jets | AFC East | 5.9 | 3% |
| 30 | Arizona Cardinals | NFC West | 5.8 | 2% |
| 31 | Miami Dolphins | AFC East | 4.9 | 1% |
| 32 | Tennessee Titans | AFC South | 4.0 | 0% |
We simulate the full 2026 schedule 10,000 times using Monte Carlo methods. Each team's power rating (Elo-style, derived from prior-season scoring margins) sets a per-game win probability; averaging the projected win total across every simulation gives the number in the table above.
No. We don't collect sportsbook win-total odds, so there's no market price to compare against here — this is purely our model's projected win total from 10,000 season simulations.
Each team gets a power rating from its prior season's scoring margin (shrunk toward the league average). We simulate the entire schedule 10,000 times with those ratings, and the projected win total is the average number of wins across all simulations.
Preseason projections stand until Week 1 kicks off; once the season is underway, the simulation reruns with actual results plugged in, so every number here updates as games are played.
Check the division standings on our main NFL hub, or sort this table by division to compare in-division win totals side by side.
This is a model projection, not a sportsbook win-total line — we don't collect or display bookmaker win-total prices. Power ratings are not adjusted for off-season roster moves. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 18+.
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